Line: Virginia -16.5, Total: 124 (current NCAA Tournament spreads and totals)
Belmont Record: 22-10 ATS: 12-16-1 OVER/UNDER: 11-8-1 Overview: While Belmont’s ATS record shows the Bruins have been a money-losing proposition over the course of the entire season, they come into the Tournament having covered six straight games, including all three in the Ohio Valley tournament in route to the conference title. This pattern suggests Belmont was overrated to start the season but may be underrated as the Big Dance commences.
Team page: Belmont
Virginia Record: 29-3 ATS: 16-13-1 OVER/UNDER: 12-14-1 Overview: The Cavaliers’ stingy defense and deliberate offensive pace – one of the slowest in all of college basketball – tend to make games fall UNDER the total. Seven of the Cavaliers’ last 11 games were UNDERs, the only OVERs coming in closer-than-expected wins against lesser ACC competition and a couple of straight-up losses to established powerhouses. Also, Virginia covered the spread in just four of those same 11 contests, indicating the Cavs are not playing up expectations set in Las Vegas.
Team page: Virginia
Handicapping tools: Matchup analysis | Power ratings | ATS standings
The Linemakers’ lean: We’re not comfortable laying this many points, nor are we comfortable going against Virginia here. We lean to the UNDER due to the stifling defense of the Cavaliers.
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h/t OddsShark for historical ATS data
